A model output for every MLB game — NRFI scores, splits, 1st-inning ML, K's, full-game ML & Run Line. Sharp-line edges. Auto-built parlays. Locks at first pitch.
Live numbers — auto-logged from every completed game since the model launched. No cherry-picking, no curated wins.
Two flagship markets — RFI and Full Game ML & Run Line — plus splits, 1st-inning ML, and strikeouts. Same Skellam-Poisson engine, tuned per market. ★ tiers gated by edge, volatility, and sharp-line agreement.
The original NRFI/YRFI score. Blends starting pitcher form, opposing batter quality, park, weather, umpire, and lineup confirmation into a single 0–100 score. ★★★ Tier A requires strong score + low volatility + positive edge vs Pinnacle fair.
Same Skellam-Poisson engine extended to nine innings. RL ★ is the model's strongest market — 71% L30. Full-game ML catches underdogs the books still misprice. ★ tier gated by edge ≥ 3pp + Pinnacle-fair agreement.
Each half of the 1st, scored separately. Pair the strongest Scoreless ★ legs into auto-built parlays.
Away / Tie / Home. TIE wins over 50% of matchups — the sharpest edge most books still misprice.
Per-pitcher whiff + called-strike rates vs the lineup's contact profile. STRIKEOUT ★ or ZERO ★.
Each game's lambda (expected runs per side per inning) is built from starter form, opposing lineup quality, park, weather, umpire zone, and a confirmed-lineup snapshot. The same lambdas feed every market — RFI, splits, ML, K's, and full-game.
Probabilities are then compared to Pinnacle's de-vigged fair price. Edge ≥ 3pp + low volatility + positive sharp agreement triggers a ★ pick. Edge magnitude determines tier (★ / ★★ / ★★★).
All five markets, every day, with the same sharp-line gating logic. First-inning and full-game. Auto-parlays. Live in-game updates. No app, no install.
★★★ Tier A = biggest edge + lowest volatility. ★★ = solid edge. ★ = positive edge.
ATSI / HTSI scored separately. Pair Scoreless ★ legs into auto-built parlays.
Away / Home / Tie predictions. Volatility (Shannon entropy) gates the ★ picks.
STRIKEOUT ★ or ZERO ★ for each starter based on their early-inning whiff rate.
Wrigley wind, Coors altitude, umpire zone tendency — all factored before lock.
Top 2-leg and 3-leg combos across Splits and K's. Only ★ legs. Combined model probability shown.
Pinnacle prices pulled live, de-vigged, compared to model. Real edge, not "lean".
Same engine, 9 innings. RL is the strongest market at 71% accuracy L30.
Every pick logged automatically. Accuracy stats refresh nightly — no cherry-picking.
Full slate, every day. Cancel anytime — no contract, no commitment beyond the current month.
Answers.
Leans are directional model output (NRFI Lean, YRFI Lean) shown whenever the score crosses a threshold. ★ picks are gated: they require a strong score, low volatility, AND positive edge vs Pinnacle's de-vigged fair price. ★★★ / ★★ / ★ tiers are graded by edge magnitude.
At first pitch. Pre-game scores update continuously as lineups, weather, umpire, and prior-day stats roll in. Once the first pitch is thrown, the snapshot is frozen and locked into history.
Pinnacle, as the reference sharp book for de-vigging. Edges shown are Pinnacle-fair, so they represent true edge against the sharpest line — not a recreational book's juice-padded number.
Cancel any time from your account page. You keep access through the end of the current billing month. No contract, no penalty.
NRFI.net is an analytics service, not a sportsbook. We don't take wagers. We're available wherever you can read a website. State laws on placing bets vary — check your local regulations.
Every MLB game graded automatically. Cancel anytime · Live in-game updates · No app.